Showing posts with label Jeb Bush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeb Bush. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Donald Trump: The Candidate the GOP Asked For But Didn't Want

Let's be honest. There's something rather entertaining about watching the Republican Party establishment squirm at Donald Trump's unlikely success. And the funniest part? They only have themselves to blame.

Ever since John McCain and Sarah Palin painted themselves as "rogues" running to change a broken system in Washington, the Republican Party has tried to take up the mantle of being anti-establishment. According to them, the Democrats and even certain members of their own party (specifically, moderates) were the reason for Washington's dysfunction. As a result, Conservatives openly embraced the Tea Party Movement and pulled the party as a whole to the right, gradually bumping out those who didn't exhibit their ideology all the time. The party blasted the media for their political bias and refused to show any sign of bipartisanship. The only compromise would be if Democrats were to bow completely to their will.

The strategy worked well in 2010 and Republicans had a good chance of unseating Barack Obama in 2012. The problem, however, that Mitt Romney (once a moderate) had moved so far right to win the nomination that he was outside Americans's comfort zone for someone to serve as President. The loss shocked the party who ignored the polls and warning signs because of their belief that the system was against them. Some Conservatives went as far as to hint at voter fraud on the part of Democrats.

The party establishment assessed the situation and recognized that they had to change their approach and subsequently who they nominated. Rumblings began almost immediately for Jeb Bush to run, hoping that he would be moderate enough to win the White House in 2016. This, of course, angered Conservatives who were both unhappy with the last toe Bush presidencies but also weary of a third. But the idea of preprdsining Bush as the candidate of choice only pushed things further and led to Conservatives to up their calls for a pure Conservative to run against both the media and the GOP establishment. The GOP leadership, in their eyes, was now the problem especially as Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell began yielding to President Obama even as Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

This brought about the rise of Ted Cruz, an unyielding Senator willing to buck party leadership and crusade against the "liberal" media. Cruz single-handidly shutdown the Federal government over Obamacare. It didn't matter that Cruz hadn't been part of any major legislation since joining the Senate. Cruz was the Conservative Champion trying to stop bipartisanship to uphold their values.

Until Donald Trump entered the race. With rambling, probably improvised speeches filled with rhetoric that insulted Mexicans and John McCain and Lindsey Graham's phone number, Trump became the anti-establishment, anti-media candidate Conservatives had been looking for. He immediately jumped to the tops of polls despite efforts by members of the media and the establishment to downplay his candidacy as a joke. This, however, has only served to energize Trump and his base even further.

Conservative voters have been searching for years for someone to tell it how it is in unrelenting fashion and not be sorry about it. Trump has yet to apologize for any insult he has made, despite calls from his fellow candidates to do so. Conservatives have grown to view the other candidates as being part of the problem as they're already part of the system. Trump, however, is no politician. He's a straight-talking businessman who says what he means and means what he says. He doesn't answer to anyone, whether it be party leadership or the media.

In other words, Conservative voters's dream candidate.

Trump has tapped into the anger and anti-Washington sentiment that many Conservatives have felt for years now and ridden it to the top of state and national polls. He's spoken out in ways that almost every politician can't because he isn't a politician and thus not bound by their "code of conduct", so to speak. He doesn't care who he offends or how he does it as long as he's speaking what he feels to be the truth.

Trump is the kind of candidate the Republican Party has been asking for. Only, they had hoped that through political consultants and polling-generated messaging they would be able to create such a candidate from within, one who they would still have a handle on. This candidate would give the party the outreach they wanted to win elections while still holding true to Conservatism. They'd hope for Jeb Bush and would've settled for someone like Scott Walker.

Instead, they got Trumped.

With The Donald now trumping the competition, the party leadership is no longer seeing their candidates trying to expand their outreach through thoughtful and meaningful debate. Instead, the inflammatory rhetoric and over-the-top antics that the Conservative base loves has been kicked up to new heights. With Trump dominating the news, the other candidates are trying to get a piece of the headlines. Rand Paul took a chainsaw to the tax code. Lindsey Graham smashed his cell phone. Rick Perry has gone head-to-head with Trump and called him a cancer. Mike Hucakbee has invoked the Holocaust in discussing the Iran nuclear deal and, in Trump fashion, has refused to apologize for it even when his own party has called for him to do so. And Ted Cruz, the once-Conservative Champion who has seen his thunder stolen the most by Trump, took to the Senate floor to attack Senator McConnell as "flat-out lying" to every Republicsn Senator and the media in what amounts to a violation of Senate rules.

Did he apologize for his speech? No.

The Republican Party have gotten the anti-media, anti-establishment Conservative Champion they asked for but didn't really want; Donald Trump. Now they don't know what to do with him.

The White House might have to wait until 2020.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Why Conservatives Are Scared of Jeb Bush

Conservative Republicans claim that if Jeb Bush gets the nomination for President, he will lose because he's not conservative enough. They say that he and Hillary Clinton might as well run on the same ticket because there is no difference between the two of them. But what scares Conservatives about Jeb Bush isn't that he's too liberal. What scares them is that he's willing to run as a moderate without trying to appease the conservative base to get the nomination and can win without kissing their butts to win the Presidency. They fear that he's right.

For seven years, Conservatives like Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingram have been saying that the reason John McCain and Mitt Romney both lost to Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 is because they were too moderate. I disagree. I think the problem they both had was that instead of sticking to their guns, both McCain and Romney (especially Romney) ran for over a year trying to appease the conservative base and then made a pivot to the middle during the general election. Voters recognized this and we're confused by who they were getting.

The truth is, the 2008 election would've gone badly for Republicans regardless of who was their candidate. A Republican President, Geore W. Bush was residing over two seemingly endless and unpopular wars and both the house market and general economy began to crash in a scope not seen since the Grest Depression. Add to that, a young Barack Obama was touting hope and change, promising a better tomorrow in a way that energized and united Americans not seen in decades. John McCain was probably the only Repuvlican who not only would've done as well as he did but who had an actual shot at winning. Anyone else would've been in for an epic shallaking not seen since Reagan's re-election in 1984. Yet after McCain lost, Conservatives asserted that a "True Conservative" would've won instead of admitting that it was just going to be a brutal election for them.

2012, however, was different. The economy was in a sluggish recovery with most Americans still dissatisfied with the state of the country. Division in Washington was at it's worst, going contrary to Obama's campaign promise of uniting the country and setting aside politics. Obama was weak and Republicans had a shot at unseating him. Yet the Republican primary proved a circus with a revolving door of front runners who each couldn't justify their campaign for President besides "anyone but Obama". The eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, was a moderate Republican who served as governor in a very liberal state. He struggled throughout the primaries to win Conservatives who warned that he wasn't conservative enough. But to get the nomination, he took up far right positions which he then tried to turn back in the general election. He also faile to define himself and his candidacy and sell it to the American people. Through it all, Conservatives weren't sold on his candidacy either. Only when Romney obliterated Obama in the first Presidential debate did Conservatives fully embrace and accept him. Alas, come election night they were all disappointed once again. Obama handily own and the attack dogs were immediately turned on Romney as the same-old line of "a True Conservative would've won" was brushed off and used. The problem with Romney was the perception people had that he was an ultra-rich elitist with elevators for his cars who enjoyed firing people and who wrote off 47% of the country as never voting for Republicans because they enjoy their government hand outs. Ironically, Romney received roughly 47% of the vote. He could've and should've own but didn't not because he wasn't Conservative enough but because he tried having one foot in Conservative ground while also trying to claim the middle. People didn't buy it.

Which brings us to today. Another election is upon us and another Bush is ready to run for President. So far it appears that Jeb Bush doesn't plan to play to the Conservative base by taking up all their positions but instead intends to keep positions which are more moderate. This has led Conservative radio hosts to say that he's no better than Hillary Clinton and that he will lose if nominated. Truth be told, of the possible Republican candidates out there, Jeb Bush is the likeliest to win without pivoting to the right to get the party's nomination. And that frightens Conservatives.

If Bush loses, Conservatives will declare victory that they were right and that 2020 needs a True Conservative. But if Bush wins, he'll prove that a moderate Republican can win without playing to the Conservative base and thus render people like Limbaugh obsolete. Of course, in all likelihood if Bush wins then Conservatives will say they carried him over the finish line by rallying behind him. It was the line they had prepared on Election Day 2012.

The only way Conservatives will learn that their approach is detrimental to this country and ony increasing the divide within our government is for a True Conservative (someone like Ted Cruz) to lose the general election. This will prove them wrong and force the party back to the middle and hopefully help our government to work again.

Of course, chances are that if someone like Ted Cruz does lose, Conservatives won't learn a thing and will continue their pattern of insanity by doing the same thin over and over again to the same results.